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Analysis and comparison of methods for predicting launches of satellites of various types into low Earth orbit

Authors: Pasynkov A.A., Sveshnikova A.S., Titov O.G.
Published in issue: #2(67)/2022
DOI: 10.18698/2541-8009-2022-2-767


Category: Aviation and Rocket-Space Engineering | Chapter: Aircraft Dynamics, Ballistics, Motion Control

Keywords: forecasting, launches, spacecraft, satellite, trend model, time (dynamic) series, regression analysis
Published: 18.02.2022

The authors completed a study of global launches into low Earth orbit for the period 2016–2020 of spacecraft of various types: satellites for remote sensing of the Earth, communication satellites and experimental and technological satellites. The initial data are taken from open sources and are collected in three separate tables in the Microsoft Excel program. As part of the work, calculations were carried out and graphs were built. In the course of the study, forecasting in the MS Excel program of launches of satellites of each type was performed by two analytical methods: extrapolation of trends and least squares. The results of forecasting showed that communication satellites tend to increase the number of launches, and therefore are more promising in terms of technological novelty.


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